摘要
基于2010~2019年全球LNG贸易数据,运用复杂网络方法,对全球LNG贸易网络特征及其单个网络团块分布情况进行研究。结果表明,全球LNG贸易网络的网络密度较小,说明全球LNG贸易国家之间的联系较为稀疏,但总体上呈日益紧密趋势。美国的介数中心性在大多数年份位居第一,对于全球LNG贸易网络的路径具有绝对的控制力,在LNG贸易中转中发挥着显著作用。全球LNG贸易网络的平均聚类系数较低,但总体呈上升趋势,表明贸易网络的区域性联接特征在不断强化,呈现出核心—边缘结构。网络团块划分具备一定的地理分布特征,但也不完全受地理位置的影响。全球LNG贸易国家之间实现整体资源共享的能力仍相对较弱,但整体的区域性联接特征不断强化。中国在全球LNG贸易网络中的影响力稳步提高,在网络团块中处于核心地位。我国一方面要加强与网络团块内主要LNG进口来源国的贸易往来,另一方面要进一步推进与网络团块内非主要进口来源国的合作,形成网络团块内稳定的LNG贸易合作关系。同时,应积极开展与网络团块外部成员的对话交流,挖掘潜在贸易合作机会。
Based on the global LNG trade data from 2010 to 2019,the characteristics of global LNG trade network and the distribution of individual network blocks are studied by using complex network method.Ac-cording to the results,the network density of the global LNG trade network is low,indicating that the connections among the global LNG trading countries are sparse,but the overall trend is getting closer.The United States ranks first in betweenness centrality in most years,and it has absolute control over the path of global LNG trade network and plays a significant role in LNG trade transit.Although the average clustering coefficient of the global LNG trade network is low,it is on the rise in general,indicating that the regional connectivity characteristics of the trade network are constantly strengthened,presenting a core-edge structure.The division of network blocks has certain geographical distribution characteristics,but it is not completely affected by geographical location.The ability of global LNG trading countries to achieve overall resource sharing is still relatively weak,but the overall regional connectivity characteristics are increasingly strengthened.With steadily increasing influence in the global LNG trade network,China is at the core of the network block.On the one hand,China should strengthen the trade with the major sources of LNG imports within the network block,and on the other hand,China should further promote the cooperation with the non-major sources of LNG imports within the network block,so as to form a stable LNG trade partnership within the network block.At the same time,China should actively carry out dialogue and communication with the external members of the network block to explore potential trade cooperation opportunities.
作者
魏景赋
李雅婷
Wei Jingfu;Li Yating(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200039)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2021年第9期1-11,共11页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
液化天然气贸易
复杂网络
网络密度
介数中心性
聚类系数
网络团块
liquefied natural gas trade
complex network
network density
betweenness centrality
clustering coefficient
network block
