摘要
霸权是国际社会的某个国家凭借其禀赋优势所获得的一种支配性地位。衰落是霸权的宿命。实业与金融的良性互动有助于霸权的兴起和维持,但霸权国的金融业往往发展过度,并与实业剥离,最终形成压倒实业的态势。这种局面的形成既源于金融业获利周期短、利润率高的诱惑,也由于霸权国控制国际分工以及霸权国货币的国际货币属性。金融压倒实业不仅造成霸权国经济实力衰退,严重削弱霸权的物质基础,还侵蚀了霸权得以维系的国际制度结构。在当代世界政治中,金融压倒实业决定了美国霸权的持续衰落是个大概率事件。过度发达的金融业在短期内为美国霸权的维持提供了经济支持,但在中长期却导致了实业显著衰退和国际地位下降。美国逆转霸权衰落努力的效果从根本上取决于政府是否有能力遏制金融业的非理性发展。美国现有的政治和经济结构决定了它很难回归金融和实业的良性互动,政府只能适度地增强对实业的支持力度以减缓自身衰落的速度,但这些努力反过来损害了支持美国霸权的国际制度结构,导致霸权地位进一步衰落。
Hegemony refers to such a status that a state with advantageous endowments dominates the international relations. Decline is the destiny of a hegemon. Virtuous interactions between finance and industries substantially contribute to hegemonic ascent and maintenance. Nevertheless, hegemonic finance tends to overgrow, become detached from and eventually predominate over industries. Financial predominance takes place not only because finance is characterized by quick returns and high profits, but also because the hegemon controls the international labor division and holds the international currency. Not only does the imbalanced relationship lead to the decline of hegemonic economy and greatly weaken its material basis, but it also erodes international institutional structure upon which the hegemony rests. Accordingly, the continuous decline of the hegemony of the United States of America is an event with high probability. Overgrown finance helps maintain U.S. hegemony in the short run, but at the cost of eroding its industries and international status in the medium and long run. The U.S. government has been making efforts to prevent its hegemonic decline, whose outcome is determined by the extent to which the U.S. government has the ability to keep fi? nance under control. Due to the existing political and economic structure, it is not very likely that the U.S. will successfully fix the financial?industrial relationship. The government can merely lend moderate support to industries to slow down hegemonic decline, but these efforts in turn jeopardize the international institutional structure which is in support of the U.S. hegemony and makes it decline at a faster pace.
作者
卢凌宇
鲍家政
Lu Lingyu;Bao Jiazheng(Professor in the School of International Studies, Yunnan University;Ph.D. Candidate in Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of the Social Sciences)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第9期74-106,157-158,共35页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
霸权衰落
国际制度结构
金融压倒实业
美国霸权
美国衰落
hegemonic decline
international institutional structure
finance overwhelming industries
American hegemony
American decline
