摘要
2019年上半年,中国经济呈现如下态势:消费增速持续回落,汽车消费大幅下降;固定资产投资中民间投资与制造业投资增速下滑明显;新增就业超额完成任务,失业率控制在目标区间内;在国际贸易和国际收支方面,外部冲击直接影响可控,但外资波动风险值得警惕;房地产投资数据上表现虚高,但实际投资也出现了下滑;股票市场尽管总体上升,但中间出现了较大的波动。中国经济虽然短期内遇到下行压力,但仍充满潜力。建议国家出台一批实质性的政策措施,掀起新一轮改革开放热潮,提振信心、增加活力。长期来看,中国经济最大的增长点是中等收入人群的扩大。中国经济完全有可能利用15年时间让目前4亿多的中等收入群体数量翻倍,这将是全球最大的中等收入群体,也是中国经济发展的有力保障。
In the first half of 2019, China’s economy showed the following trends: consumption growth continued to decline, and automobile consumption dropped sharply;private investment and manufacturing investment in fixed assets investment declined significantly;new employment exceeded the target range, and unemployment rate was controlled within the target range;in terms of international trade and balance of payments, the direct impact of external shocks can be controlled, but the risk of fluctuation of foreign investment deserves vigilance;the real estate investment data show a false high performance, but the actual investment has also declined;although the stock market has risen overall, there has been greater volatility in the middle. Although China’s economy is under downward pressure in the short term, it still has great potential. It is suggested that the state introduce a number of substantive policies and measures to set off a new upsurge of reform and opening up, boost confidence and increase vitality. In the long run, the biggest growth point of China’s economy is the expansion of middle-income people. It is entirely possible for China’s economy to double the number of middle-income groups currently over 400 million in 15 years, which will be the largest middle-income group in the world and a strong guarantee for China’s economic development.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第8期27-47,共21页
Reform
关键词
宏观经济形势
经济增长
经济发展
macroeconomic situation
economic growth
economic development
