摘要
针对传统挣值管理方法评估项目进度时忽略项目的动态特征以及随机性,并且未区分挣值是否从关键路径上获得的缺点,通过蒙特卡洛模拟,引入关键指数CI,得到两个改进的评价指标TEACw和SPIw,解决在传统挣值方法中可能出现的进度误判问题。并结合实际案例应用,将传统挣值管理方法与改进后的挣值管理方法进行比较分析,发现可能存在的风险,对项目的不确定性及关键路径的影响加以全面考虑,更好地评估项目进展。
In view of the traditional Earned Value Management method,the dynamic characteristics and randomness of the project are neglected when the progress of the project is evaluated.Whether the value of the earned value is obtained from the critical path can't be confirmed.Taking use of the Monte Carlo simulation,the key index CI is introduced,by which two evaluation indexes TEAC,w and SPIw are got to address the problem of misinterpretation of progress in the traditional earned value analysis.Combined with the actual case application,the traditional earned value management method and the improved earned value management method are compared and analyzed,after which it can be concluded that the new indicators can be systematically considered in combination with the possible risks and the uncertainties and key path impacting of the project,and provide better assessment of project progress.
作者
蔡万区
黄栋
叶卫民
CAI Wan-qu;HUANG Dong;YE Wei-min(Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economy,Naval University of Engineerings Wuhan 430033,China)
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第7期110-114,119,共6页
Fire Control & Command Control
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY028)
海军工程大学2016年自主立项基金资助项目(20161626)
关键词
挣值管理
风险
关键路径
项目管理
earned value management
risk
critical path
project management
