摘要
针对“一带一路”背景下中国电力项目海外投资面临的各类风险,从电力投资潜力、政治风险、经济基本面、营商环境等4个一级指标出发,构建出评价电力工程项目海外投资风险的指标体系。运用熵权法确定各评价指标的客观权重,并在此基础上采用灰色关联分析法对“一带一路”沿线的15个国家进行评价,同时对评价指标的权重和15个国家的电力投资风险进行了量化分析。结果表明:电力投资潜力和政治风险对电力项目海外投资的影响最大;波兰、马来西亚、俄罗斯、智利是投资风险最小的国家。
In light of various risks that Chinese power companies under the“Belt and Road”initiative have encountered in their overseas investment,an indicator system is proposed,which consists of four primary indicators,namely,power investment potential,political risk,economic fundamental,and investment environment,to evaluate the overseas investment risk of power companies.The entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weight of each evaluation indicator,and based on this,the gray correlation analysis method is used to evaluate 15 countries along the“Belt and Road”initiative.Meanwhile,the weight of evaluation indicators and the risk of power investment in 15 countries are quantitatively analyzed.The results show that power investment potential and political risk have the greatest impact on power companies’overseas investment with Poland,Malaysia,Russia and Chile being the countries with the least investment risk.
作者
曾芬钰
李格格
ZENG Fenyu;LI Gege(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)
出处
《上海电力学院学报》
CAS
2019年第3期277-283,共7页
Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power
基金
教育部首批新工科研究与实践项目(面向“一带一路”的能源电力工程教育国际化研究与实践)
2018年度教育部人文社会科学研究专项任务项目(18JDGC004)
关键词
一带一路
电力项目
投资风险
熵权法
灰色关联分析法
"Belt and Road"initiative
power companies
investment risk
entropy weight method
gray correlation analysis method
