摘要
[目的/意义]探寻适合图书馆信息预测服务的新方法,对拓宽信息服务范围、提高服务满意度、辅助政府决策有重要意义。[方法/过程]描述了2种传统灰色预测方法——GM(1,1)模型和GM(1,N)模型,结合回归思想提出了改进后的组合预测模型,并将3种预测模型分别应用到人民调解信息预测中。[结果/结论]利用组合预测模型得到的预测结果最精准,最贴近现实。
[Purpose/significance] Exploring new methods suitable for library information forecasting services, is of great significance for broadening the scope of information services, improving service satisfaction, and assisting government decision-making.[Method/process] The paper describes two traditional grey prediction methods, of which are GM(1,1) model and GM(1,N) model, proposes the improved combined forecasting model combining with regression theory, and applies separately 3 models to the prediction of people’s mediation information.[Result/conclusion] The prediction results obtained by the combined prediction model are the most accurate and the most realistic.
作者
张文德
刘静
张婷
刘田
Zhang Wende;Liu Jing;Zhang Ting;Liu Tian(Institute of Information Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou Fujian 350116;Fuzhou University Library, Fuzhou Fujian 350116;School of Applied Technology, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou Fujian 350118;Library of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou Fujian 350002)
出处
《情报探索》
2019年第6期21-26,共6页
Information Research
基金
2016年福建省教育厅中青年项目“基于中智集的高校突发信息应急决策理论与方法研究”(项目编号:JAT170113)和“高校信息管理系统分先识别的研究”(项目编号:JAT160186)成果之一
关键词
信息预测
灰色预测
组合预测
人民调解
information forecast
grey forecasting method
combination grey model
people's mediation
