摘要
2018年初,朝鲜改变数年间持续发展核导的做法,刻意缓和对外关系,在无核化问题上做出积极姿态,半岛局势峰回路转。本文依据“强制外交”理论的分析框架探讨了特朗普政府的对朝政策在半岛局势发展中的作用机制和效果。综合来看,特朗普政府通过“极限施压”政策对朝鲜的安全、经济、民生造成了前所未有的压力,又在承认朝鲜政权和保障体制安全、美朝关系正常化和助朝发展经济等方面表现出一定的灵活性。面对这种新的外部环境,朝鲜抓住美韩政府愿意对话的契机,积极参加无核化谈判进程,但朝核问题的前景仍存不确定性。
At the beginning of 2018,North Korea made a series of policy changes,which include giving up its insistence on developing nuclear missiles,actively moderating its external relations,and taking a positive attitude toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,which led to a dramatic change of the situation in the peninsula.This paper has discussed the function and effect of the Trump administration’s North Korean policy in the development of the situation in the Korean Peninsula under the analytical framework of“coercive diplomacy”theory.In a comprehensive view,the policy pursued by the Trump administration toward North Korea is one of the major factors that caused the change of situation in the peninsula.The Trump administration has imposed unprecedented pressures on North Korea in security,economy and livelihood through promoting the policy of“extreme pressure”,while taking an unprecedented flexibility toward North Korea in recognizing the North Korean regime,ensuring its regime security,normalizing bilateral relations,and assisting it to develop economy.Facing such a new external environment,North Korea has actively participated in the negotiation process on denuclearization by seizing the opportunity that the governments of the U.S.and South Korea want to engage in dialog with the North Korean government.However,uncertainties still exist in the prospect of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.
作者
王付东
杨文静
Wang Fudong;Yang Wenjing(Division of Korean Peninsula Studies,CICIR;Institute of American Studies,CICIR)
出处
《和平与发展》
CSSCI
2019年第2期53-69,134,135,共19页
Peace and Development
