摘要
为了探究兴仁县烟草生长期内旱涝急转特征,利用兴仁县1961—2012年烟草生长期内(5—8月)的日降水资料,通过定义长、短周期旱涝急转指数,采用滑动平均法、降水距平法等,全面分析兴仁县烟草生长期内的长、短周期旱涝急转变化趋势、月降水变化规律。研究结果表明:烟草生长期内长周期旱涝急转以旱转涝为主,在今后涝转旱事件有增多趋势,并且强度有所降低;短周期旱转涝事件演变趋势为增加—减少—减少;5—6月旱转涝事件有增多趋势;6—7月是旱涝急转易发时段,且强度较高;7—8月涝转旱事件有减少趋势,且强度有所降低。在烟草成熟期,月均降水较多,降水波动较大,极易发生旱涝急转。此研究成果可为防灾减灾对策的制定提供理论依据。
In order to study the characteristics of drought - flood abrupt alteration during the tobacco growing period in Xingren County,daily precipitation data within the tobacco growing period (May to August) was analyzed from 1961 to 2012.Therefore,Long Short- cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index (LDFAI SDFAI) was defined with the employ of slip averaging method and precipitation anomaly method.A comprehensive analysis was carried out for the change trend of long short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation,as well as the monthly precipitation variation pattern during the tobacco growth period.The results showed that during the growing period,leading events of the long-cycle alteration was from drought to flood,but the alteration from flood to drought tended to increase in the future with weak impacts.The general trend for short-cycle alteration was increase-decrease-decrease:events of drought turning into flood increased during May and June;from June to July was the most occurring period of drought-flood abrupt alteration with strong impacts;and the events of flood-drought alteration reduced with weaker impacts during July and August.Generally,the monthly average precipitation was heavy with great fluctuation during the tobacco maturation period,and the chance of drought-flood would be high.This research results can provide theoretical basis to formulate countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation.
作者
谷红梅
袁义杰
张泽中
慎东方
GU Hongmei;YUAN Yijie;ZHANG Zezhong;SHEN Dongfang(School of Water Conservancy Engineering,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power ,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Guizhou Provincial Water Conservancy Research Institute,Guiyang 550002,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2019年第3期46-51,共6页
Pearl River
基金
"贵州烟草旱涝急转响应机理与减灾对策研究"(KT201705)
2013年水利部公益性项目"变化环境下贵州旱灾形成机理及管理信息系统"(201301039)
关键词
旱涝急转
降水距平法
烟草生长期
兴仁县
drought-flood abrupt alternation
precipitation anomaly method
tobacco growth period
Xingren County
