摘要
利用1957—2017年城步县近61年的降水资料,运用回归分析、趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、变异分析及旱涝等级分析等方法,对近61年春夏秋冬季、汛期(4—9月)的降水动态变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:近61年城步的降水变化趋势不明显。年降水最大值为1991.7mm,出现在2002年;最小值为802.2mm,出现在2011年;极值均出现在21世纪的初期,进入21世纪以来年降水量变化趋势较剧烈。城步降水主要集中在夏季和春季,降水量分别占全年总量的41.8%和26.1%;冬季最少,仅占14.1%。通过降水变异系数可以看出,降水变化中虽有季节差异,但变化较为接近,秋、冬两季降水波动稍明显,而汛期及年际间的降水都比较稳定,近61年城步有5段降水连丰期,4段连枯期。通过Z指数进行旱涝分析;近61年中城步出现正常年份的概率最大,重涝和重旱的概率共占12%,大涝和大旱的出现概率各占11%和10%。
In this paper,the precipitation data of 61 years in Chengbu County from 1957 to 2017 were counted,using regression analysis,trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,mutation analysis and drought and flood level analysis,etc.,for the spring,summer,autumn and winter,and the flood season.From April to September,the trend of precipitation dynamics was analyzed,revealing the characteristics and evolution of precipitation in different ages and seasons.The results show that the change trend of the near 61 years in Chengbu is not obvious.The annual precipitation maximum is 1991.7mm,which appeared in 2002;the minimum value is 802.2mm,which appeared in 2011.The extreme values appeared in the early 21st century.The annual precipitation has changed sharply since the beginning of the 21st century.Precipitation in Chengbu is mainly concentrated in summer and spring.The precipitation accounts for 41.8%and 26.1%of the total amount in the whole year,and the least in winter,only 14.1%.It can be seen from the variation coefficient of precipitation that although there are seasonal differences in precipitation changes,the changes are relatively close.The precipitation fluctuations in autumn and winter are slightly obvious,while the precipitation in the flood season and interannual period are relatively stable.There are 5 segments in the near 61 years of Chengbu.The precipitation period is continuous,and the 4th section is continuous.Through the Z-index for drought and flood analysis,the probability of a normal year in the middle 61 years is the largest,the probability of heavy and heavy drought is 12%,and the probability of occurrence of big and large drought is 11%and 10%.
作者
潘江萍
邱丽静
王米吉
朱家亮
王晓东
Pan Jiangping(Chengbu Miao Autonomous County Meteorological Bureau,Chengbu 422500,China)
出处
《安徽农学通报》
2019年第4期120-123,共4页
Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
湖南省气象局面上项目XQKJ19B019"城步近61年降水变化特征分析"
关键词
降水特征
突变检验
变化趋势
旱涝分析
Precipitation characteristics
Mutation test
Change trend
Drought and flood analysis
