摘要
为完善九龙江流域应对极端水文事件和旱涝急转的调度预案,根据九龙江流域历史观测资料,利用短周期降雨旱涝急转指数SDFAI与标准差法对九龙江流域旱涝急转的历史典型年进行识别并分析。研究结果表明:①1952—2021年,九龙江流域的旱涝急转典型年共计11 a,年份分布较均匀,近十年的旱涝急转典型年为2016、2020年;②九龙江流域四季旱涝转移的概率特征为在干旱情况下,由旱转涝的概率小于连旱的概率,在洪涝情况下,由涝转旱的概率大于连涝的概率;③对九龙江流域旱涝急转历史典型年1987、1995、2016年的水文情势进行了分析,将典型年的降雨量、蒸发量与常年量作对比,得到了其逐月变幅情况,为制定旱涝急转应急调度方案提供数据支撑。
To improve the scheduling plan for extreme hydrological events and drought-flood abrupt alternation in Jiulong River Basin,according to the historical observation data of the basin,this paper adopts the short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index(SDFAI)and standard deviation method to identify and analyze the historical typical years of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Jiulong River Basin.The results are as follows:①From 1952 to 2021,the typical years of drought-flood abrupt alternation in this basin are evenly distributed with a total of 11 years,and the typical years of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the last ten years are 2016 and 2020;②The probability characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Jiulong River Basin in the four seasons are shown.In the case of droughts,the alternation probability from droughts to floods is less than that of continuous droughts.In the case of floods,the alternation probability from floods to droughts is greater than that of continuous floods;③The hydrological situations of 1987,1995,and 2016 in the basin are analyzed,with the three years being the historical typical years of drought-flood abrupt alternation.Meanwhile,rainfalls and evaporation in typical years are compared with those in the whole year to obtain their monthly variation and then provide data support for formulating emergency scheduling schemes of drought-flood abrupt alternation.
作者
孙浩岩
王立辉
唐萍
徐普
江勇
余志明
邹清水
SUN Haoyan;WANG Lihui;TANG Ping;XU Pu;JIANG Yong;YU Zhiming;ZOU Qingshui(College of Civil Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;Minjiang Estuary Hydrological Experimental Station,Fujian Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Fuzhou 350001,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2023年第10期78-86,共9页
Pearl River
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0400910)
福建省水利科技项目(FJZHCG2022-107)。
关键词
旱涝急转
SDFAI
水文情势
九龙江
drought-flood abrupt alternation
SDFAI
hydrological situation
Jiulong River
