摘要
本文基于制度扭曲的关键性作用,尝试构建城乡收入差距演变机制的系统性解释框架,创新性地将其分解为要素生产力效应、制度扭曲效应和转移再分配效应,进一步结合全要素生产率测算分析了城乡收入差距的演变特征和地区差异,并基于户籍制度改革进程和新型城镇化发展目标模拟预测了2020年与2030年的城乡收入差距状况。研究表明,制度扭曲效应逐渐取代要素生产力效应,成为城乡收入差距的最大贡献者,其贡献度高达67.8%,这种影响在经济发展相对落后的地区更为明显。中国城乡收入差距呈现显著的"倒U型"特征,但各地区到达"倒U型"曲线波峰的时间存在明显差异,大部分省份的波峰集中在2006年、2007年和2009年三个年份。数值模拟分析发现,若户籍制度改革到位并能实现新型城镇化目标,城乡收入差距会进一步缩小,而此时制度扭曲效应的贡献度不断下降,要素生产力效应的贡献度更为显著。本文的研究结论能够坚定加强制度供给创新、加快推进城乡融合发展的信心与决心,也进一步印证了当前实施全面深化改革,尤其是供给侧结构性改革的政策有效性。
This paper attempts to construct a systematic explanatory framework for the evolution mechanism of urban-rural income inequality based on the key role of institution distortion,which is decomposed into factor productivity effect,institutional distortion effect and transfer reallocation effect.Furthermore,combining the total factor productivity measurement,the evolution characteristics and regional differences of urban-rural income inequality are analyzed,and the urban-rural income inequality in 2020 and 2030 is simulated and predicted,based on the reform process of household registration system and the new-type urbanization development goal.The results show that institutional supply effect has gradually replaced the factor productivity effect and become the biggest contributor of income inequality between urban and rural areas,with the contribution rate of 67.8%,and its influence is more obvious in the relatively backward economic development area.The income inequality between urban and rural areas in China shows a significant“inverted U”feature,but the time to arrive at the“U-shaped”curve peak is obviously different in different regions,with the peak arriving for most provinces(cities)in the three years of 2006,2007 and 2009.Numerical simulation analysis has found that if the household registration system reform is in place,and the goal of new-type urbanization is achieved,urban and rural income inequality will be further reduced.By that time,the contribution of institutional distortion effect will be declining,and the contribution of factor productivity effect more significant.The conclusion can boost the confidence and determination in strengthening the institutional supply innovation,and accelerating the integration of urban and rural development,and further proves the policy effectiveness of the ongoing comprehensive deepening reform,especially the supply-side structural reform.
作者
孙华臣
焦勇
SUN Huachen;JIAO Yong(Development Research Center of Shandong Provincial People's Government,250011;Shandong University of Science and Technology,250031)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期130-146,共17页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目"城乡收入差距演变机制及其对经济增长的门限效应"(16FJL005)
山东省社会科学规划研究重点项目"促进我省乡村振兴:理论机理与实现路径"(18BSJJ04)
关键词
城乡收入差距
制度扭曲
全要素生产率
数值模拟技术
Urban-Rural Income Inequality
Institutional Distortion
Total Factor Productivity
Numerical Simulation Technology
