摘要
基于系统动力学的北京市城市交通能源消耗模拟模型包含人口、经济、城市交通、交通能源消耗四个子系统。模型根据北京市人口、GDP、交通出行量、私人小汽车拥有量、交通能耗等历史数据对模型进行模型验证。在此基础上设置4个不同的情景,针对北京市城市人口控制、出行结构改变、新能源汽车用量增加等情景进行分析。根据情景模拟结果提出了相关建议:(1)降低人口数量,减少出行量;(2)提升新能源汽车比例,替代汽油车;(3)提升自行车出行比例,促进绿色出行。
This study constructed the urban traffic energy consumption model of Beijing based on the system dynamics model,which included four subsystems:the population,the economy,the urban traffic travel and energy consumption.The model was verified by the historical data of population,GDP,traffic travel,private car ownership and traffic energy consumption.On this basis,four different scenarios were set up to analyze the urban population control,the change of travel structure and the increase of the amount of electric vehicles in Beijing.Finally,the related suggestions were put forward according to the simulation results:first,reduce the population to reduce the total trips;second,upgrade the proportion of new energy vehicles to replace the gasoline vehicles;third,increasing the proportion of bicycle travel and promote the green travel.
作者
杨岩
佟贺丰
徐丽萍
姚长青
Yang Yan;Tong Hefeng;Xu Liping;Yao Changqing(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing 100089,China)
出处
《环境科学与管理》
CAS
2019年第2期57-62,共6页
Environmental Science and Management
基金
北京市财政项目"京津冀协同发展对北京能源-环境-经济系统的影响分析模型研发"(PXM2016-178215-000014)资助
关键词
城市交通
系统动力学
交通能源消耗
新能源汽车
urban transportation
system dynamics
energy consumption
new energy vehicle
