摘要
利用系统动力学模型,结合情景分析法,对广州市2012年-2020年工业二氧化碳排放产生量进行模拟预测。通过调整广州市产业结构、科技投入水平、能源结构三个影响因子,设置三种情景模式,并模拟预测广州市工业二氧化碳排放量情况,通过对比分析发现三种情景都不能达到广州市2020年减排目标,在此基础上,结合广州市工业发展的实际情况,进一步调整三个影响因子参数,提出适合广州市工业发展的调整情景模式,从而根据研究提出广州市工业低碳化转型升级的对策措施及实施路径。
Based on the system dynamics model and the scenario analysis method,the industrial carbon dioxide emission production in Guangzhou is forecasted in 2012-2020.By adjusting the industrial structure of Guangzhou,the level of investment in science and technology,the energy structure of the three influencing factors were used to set up three scenarios and to simulate the prediction of industrial carbon dioxide emissions in Guangzhou City.Through comparative analysis,it isfound that three scenarios cannot be achieved in 2020.On the basis of this,the paper combined with the actual situation of industrial development in Guangzhou,to further adjust the three factors of influence factors.It put forward for the adjustment of industrial development in Guangzhou City scenario,according to the study proposed in Guangzhou City,low-carbon industrial transformation and upgrading measures and implementation path.
出处
《环境科学与管理》
CAS
2017年第10期29-32,共4页
Environmental Science and Management
基金
广州市科技和信息化局研究项目(2014Y4300022)
关键词
系统动力学
情景分析
低碳化转型升级
system dynamics
scenario analysis
low carbon transformation and upgrading
