摘要
共享单车作为互联网经济的典型代表,在给人们带来便利的同时,也带来了一系列的城市管理问题。文章采用系统动力学方法,对北京市共享单车保有量进行建模,模型包括人口子系统、经济子系统、交通子系统和共享单车子系统,通过历史数据进行模型检验,在此基础上,研究通过设置控制人口增长、增加公共交通运量、提升共享完好率等不同情景的组合,进行未来政策情景下北京市共享单车保有量的模拟。结果表明,人口和共享单车完好率是影响共享单车数量的关键因素。严格控制人口的同时提高共享单车完好率,会使得共享单车保有量维持在较低水平的同时能够满足北京市公共交通运量增加的接驳需要,进而为北京市绿色交通发展提供助力。
Sharing-bike is a typical representative of the new era of internet economy,which brought convenience to people while also involved a series problems of urban management.In this paper,the system dynamics method was applied to model the ownership of sharing-bike in Beijing,which including the population sub-model,the economic submodel,the traffic sub-model and the sharing-bike sub-model.On the basis of verification based on the historical data,this study conducted the scenario analysis from the aspects of population control,increasing the public transportation volume and improving the availability of sharing-bike.The results indicated that the population amount and the availability of sharing-bike are the two key factors which influenced the ownership of sharing-bike.The results also suggested that strictly controlling the amount of population and increasing the availability of sharing-bike will meet the transferring demand from the increase of public transportation volume and maintain the ownership of sharing bike in a relatively low level,which will also contribute to the development of green traffic in Beijing.
作者
杨岩
佟贺丰
徐丽萍
姚长青
YANG Yan;TONG Hefeng;XU Liping;YAO Changqing(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing 100089,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2018年第12期117-122,共6页
Ecological Economy
基金
中国科学技术信息研究所创新基金青年项目"创新城市人才空间集聚与空间溢出分析"(QN2017-08)
北京市财政项目"京津冀协同发展对北京能源-环境-经济系统的影响分析模型研发"(PXM2016-178215-000014)
关键词
共享单车
系统动力学
保有量
人口
出行量
sharing-bike
system dynamics
ownership
population
travel volume
