摘要
文章以OECD中17个国家1960～2016年的数据为样本,从人口规模、质量、年龄结构和迁移分布等方面刻画OECD国家的人口变动轨迹,继而采用面板校正标准误差(PCSE)估计法和广义最小二乘法(FGLS)探索检验了这些国家人口变动各因素和综合因素对经济增长、产业结构和发展质量等转变的影响及其作用规律。研究结果显示,在一定规模和密度的人口环境下,总人口的过快增长会对经济增长和经济发展质量产生一定的抑制作用,人口迁移率对经济增长和经济发展质量的提高有促进作用,但对经济结构的调整有抑制作用;人口年龄结构的变化会改变经济结构;劳动年龄人口的增加、受教育水平的提升、人口的集聚对经济增长、经济结构的调整和经济发展质量的提高有正向作用;预期寿命的提高为服务业的发展带来了机会和动力,人口老龄化则促进了产业结构的调整升级。
Based on the data of 17 OECD countries from 1960 to 2016,this paper examines the trajectories of population size,population quality,age structure and distribution.And it explores the impact of population changes on economic development,industrial structure and development quality by using PCSE and FGLS.The result shows that,given the population size and quality fixed,the population growth rate has negative impacts on economic growth and the quality of economic development.The migration rate contributes positively to economic growth and the quality of economic development,although it restrains the change of economic structure.An increase in working-age population has a positive impact on economic growth,economic structure adjustment,and development quality.Likewise,population aging promotes the adjustment of industrial structure.The improvement of education has a significantly positive impact on economic growth and development quality.The increase of life expectancy promotes the vigorous development of service industry.In addition,population agglomeration and migration accelerate the economic growth,enhance the quality of economic development,and promote the change of economic development mode in general.The paper points out that the impact of population on economic development results from all demographic aspects.
作者
王金营
李天然
Wang Jinying;Li Tianran
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期2-16,126,共16页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社科基金重点项目"人口与经济发展方式转变研究"(编号:12ARK001)的阶段性成果
