摘要
本文利用54个国家和地区1980~2019年的面板数据,基于代际交叠模型,通过构建动态面板模型实证研究了人口老龄化对房价的影响。结果表明:人口老龄化程度加深会抑制房价上涨;经济增长在人口老龄化影响房价的过程中起到了部分中介的作用,形成了人口老龄化→经济增长→房价波动的完整作用路径,且加快经济增长速度可以缓解人口老龄化对房价的负向影响。进一步研究发现,人口老龄化对房价的负向影响与国家经济发展程度的异质性有关,即对发达国家房价下行压力更大。实证结果对我国具有政策启示:完善家庭生育支持政策,优化人口结构;建立与人口结构变动相适应的房产政策;加快劳动节约型技术进步,推动我国经济高质量发展。
Based on the intergenerational overlap model and the panel data of 54 countries from 1980 to 2019,this paper empirically studies the impact of population aging on housing prices by constructing a dynamic panel model.The results show that the aging of population will restrain the rise of housing price;Economic growth plays a partial intermediary role in the process of population aging affecting housing price,forming a complete function path of population aging→economic growth→housing price fluctuation,and accelerating the economic growth rate can alleviate the negative impact of population aging on housing price.Further research shows that the negative impact of population aging on housing prices is related to the heterogeneity of national economic development,that is,the downward pressure on housing prices in developed countries is greater.The empirical results have policy implications for China:Improving family fertility support policies and optimizing population structure;Building property policies in line with demographic changes;We will accelerate labor-saving technological progress and promote high-quality development of China’s economy.
出处
《劳动经济评论》
2022年第1期237-262,共26页
Labor Economic Review
关键词
人口老龄化
经济增长
房价
动态面板
population aging
economic growth
housing price
dynamic panel
