摘要
基于2006—2017年中国31个省份数据,利用面板门槛模型对我国不同类型房地产房价与经济增长之间是否存在行业资金约束下的异质性进行估计与分析。结果表明:在行业资金约束下,住宅地产、办公楼和商业地产存在不同的资金门槛效应,住宅地产和办公楼存在一个门槛值,商业地产存在两个门槛值。在行业资金约束较强的情况下,房价上涨挤压其他行业资金,与经济增长呈现负相关关系。行业资金约束较弱的情况下,房价上涨有效带动相关产业,推动经济发展。中国应进一步完善信贷市场,拓宽房企融资渠道,加强房企预期管理并根据各地实际情况执行"因城施策"措施。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2017,this paper used the panel threshold model to estimate and analyze that whether there has a heterogeneity relationship between the price of different types of real estate and economic growth under the constraints of industry capital.The results showed that there were different capital threshold effects in residential real estate,office building,and commercial real estate from the perspective of industry capital constraints.There was one threshold for residential real estate and office building,and two thresholds for commercial real estate.In the case of strong capital constraints,the rise of house prices squeezed other industry capital,showing a negative correlation with economic growth,while in the case of weak industry capital constraints,the rise of house prices effectively drove related industries and promoted economic development.Therefore,China should further improve the credit market,broaden the financing channels of real estate enterprises,strengthen the expectation management of real estate enterprises,and implement the measure of"different policies for different cities".
作者
李嘉珣
LI Jiaxun(Policy Research Center,Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China,Beijing 100835,China)
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2021年第3期59-65,共7页
Economy and Management
关键词
资金约束
房地产价格
经济增长
面板门槛模型
非线性
capital constraint
real estate price
economic growth
panel threshold model
non-linearity
