摘要
城市和农村作为两种不同的生活地域,在生产方式、生活方式、生存环境和消费水平等方面都存在着较大的差别。本文首先从消费水平、消费结构和消费倾向三个方面对比分析了2003-2012年吉林省城乡居民生活消费的差异;然后运用灰色关联度的计算方法,分析了城乡居民消费水平与人均可支配收入、储蓄余额、商品零售价格指数、社会保障支出、人口抚养比等因素的关联性;最后借助差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),预测了吉林省2013-2016年的城乡生活消费支出差额及发展趋势。
There exist big differences in mode of production, lifestyle, living environment and consumption level between urban and rural areas. This paper firstly analyses differences between urban and rural living consumption of Jilin Province from the aspects of the level of consumption, consumption structure and consumption tendency from 2003 to 2012. Secondly, it analyzes the relevance of these factors which influence the consumption structure of urban and rural life by comparing the consumption structure of urban and rural life in the ten years. Finally, with the aid of SPSS software for ARIMA model predicting of urban and rural household consumption expenditure and the overall development trend of Jilin province 2013-2016. The results show that the overall urban and rural difference still go upward trend.
作者
李国柱
张潞
LI Guozhu;ZHANG Lu(College of Tourism and Geography, Jilin Normal University, Siping, Jilin 136000, China)
出处
《吉林师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
2016年第4期115-120,共6页
Journal Of Jilin Normal University:Humanities & Social Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"城市化进程中家庭消费的时空差异与可持续消费模式构建研究"(编号:13CSH068)
教育部人文社科青年基金项目"基于农户视角的农村生活能源消费模式转化研究"(编号:10YJCZH070)
关键词
吉林省
生活消费
城乡差异
趋势预测
Jilin province
living consumption
differences between urban and rural areas
trend prediction
