摘要
2 0世纪 90年代美国出现了历史上最长的一次周期性高涨 ,许多人认为美国进入了“新经济”时代。但如果从历史的观点来观察 ,美国这十年的宏观经济表现并不像人们想象的那样史无前例。这次周期性繁荣是由利润率上升所引导的投资高涨直接推动的。劳动生产率增长的逐渐加速和实际工资的长期下降扩大了利润份额 ,资本生产率的上升则抑制了资本构成的迅速提高 ,这是导致利润率增长的直接原因。对股市泡沫、债务消费及国外资金流入的依赖也反映了此次经济繁荣的某些特点和脆弱性。但90年代美国的经济高涨还有其深层的经济背景 :信息技术革命促进了劳动生产率增长率的结构性加速 ;经济全球化加强了美国资本在压低劳动价格、控制通货膨胀和利用国外资金等方面的实力地位 ;经济关系的若干重要变化则为投资率的上升提供了有利的制度条件。这些因素可能在一个较长时期发挥作用 ,因而美国 90年代的经济高涨可能预示着一个新的经济增长长波的开始。
There emerged in the 1990s' United States of America a historically longest cyclical economic boom. Many a scholar deems it the coming of a “new economy” period. However, the past ten year macro economic was not unprecedented in the USA; this cyclical economic boom was the direct result of the acceleration of the increase of labour productivity and the duration of the decrease of the labourer's real income, which serve to be one of the causes of the expansion of the profit amount, quickening the growth of capital productivity, checking the rapid growth of the organic composition of capital. This is the direct cause of the expansion of margin of profit. The stock market bubbles, the consumers' debt and the dependence of the inflow of the foreign investments were reflecting the 1990s' USA economic situation and its frangibility. Sure is that the 1990s' economic boom in the USA shows its deep seated economic complex: (a) the revolution of information technology accelerates structurally the increase ratio of labour productivity; (b) the economic globalization enhance the power of American capital to have the labour price kept low, the currency inflation controlled, and the foreign investment used to its advantage; (c) the changes of some of the important economic relations created institutional guarantee for the growth of investment ratio. All the mentioned above will play their roles in a comparatively long period. Shall we take the economic boom in the 1990s' USA a foreshowing advent of a new economic long wave.
出处
《南开学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第5期41-53,共13页
Nankai Journal:Philosophy,Literature and Social Science Edition
关键词
新经济
经济周期
经济长波
New Economy
Economic Cycle
Economic Long Wave
