摘要
产业疏解带动人口疏解已成为首都调控人口的基本思路。以制造业为例,探讨京津冀协同发展背景下的产业转移特点和趋势,并在此基础上深入剖析产业转移对区域就业的影响。研究发现:京津冀地区产业转移路径较为清晰,北京多数衰退产业都可以在天津和河北找到选择区位。北京制造业的转移减少了劳动力的需求,且与其他影响因素相比,产业转移的就业负面效应微小。产出和工资水平是影响就业的关键因素。短期来看,产业转移对京津冀各自的就业存在负面效应;但从长远看,增加了天津和河北劳动力需求,促进了就业。提出了发挥资源优势、减少区域差距、促进津冀经济发展、放缓北京经济增长速度或提高工资水平以实现北京人口调控目标的建议。
Population regulation frame in Beijing is that population should be decentralized by industrial transfer. The paper explores the characteristics and trends of the manufacture industrial transfer, and then the employment effect on manufacture industrial transfer in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been discussed. The result shows that there exists a clear manufacture transfer line, which most recession industries in Beijing could be found their location in Tianjin and Hebei. The employment size definitely should be decreased in Beijing because of some manufacture industries out. But the effect on industrial transfer is much tinier than that of output increase and wage. The output increase and wage are the key factors to employment size. In short time there is the negative effect of employment, while in long time there is the positive effect of employment on industrial decentralization in Tianjin and Hebei. Therefore, some advice should be put forward such as to enhance the labor absorption capacity of Tianjin and Hebei, to reduce regional development gap. Slowing down Beijing’s economic growth or increasing the wage level would be more better way to achieve the population regulation goal than decentralizing industry.
作者
肖周燕
XIAO Zhouyan(Institute of Population and Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期160-164,共5页
Areal Research and Development
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(15BRK038)
关键词
产业
人口
疏解
就业
北京市
京津冀
industry
population
decentralize
employment
Beijing City
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
