摘要
当前,高速铁路与枢纽机场之间的空铁联运已成为区域综合交通体系中的最优模式。考虑到铁路运输与航空运输间的联运和竞争关系,采用分类预测的形式对空铁联运量进行预测,提出了预测联运量的新方法。最后,以湖北省拟建的鄂州机场为例,对鄂州机场2025-2045年的空铁联运量进行预测。结果表明,基于Logit模型的分类预测方法物理意义明确,计算简单,为多式联运的运量预测提供了一种新思路。
In the regional integrated transportation system, the air-rail intermodal transportation between high-speed railway and hub airport has become an optimal model. Considering the intermodal and competitive relationship between rail transportation and air transportation, classification predication is used to forecast the freight volume of air-rail intermodal transportation. As a result, a new method for forecasting the freight volume is put forward. Finally, taking the proposed Ezhou airport in Hubei as an example, the combined traffic volume of Ezhou airport in 2025 2045 is predicted. The results show that the classification forecasting method based on Logit model has explicit physical meanings and simple calculation. It provides a new way for forecasting the volume of multimodal transport.
作者
黄娟
贺政纲
HUANG Juan;HE Zheng-gang(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2018年第4期88-92,共5页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
基金
四川省科学技术项目(2018ZR0066)
关键词
空铁联运
LOGIT模型
分类预测
竞争关系
联运量预测
air-rail intermodal transportation
Logit model
classification forecast
competition relation
prediction of combined traffic volume
