摘要
为有效评价机场飞行区的安全水平,识别系统的薄弱环节,针对机场飞行区的特点,运用鱼骨图法从人、机、环、管4个方面分析影响机场飞行区安全的风险因素,构建机场飞行区安全风险4级评价指标体系;建立基于突变理论和模糊集的机场飞行区安全风险评价模型,对T机场飞行区安全风险进行评价,判断T机场的突变级数值所处的安全等级。结果表明,T机场飞行区安全风险水平处于“安全”级别,评价结果与实际情况相符,验证了突变理论用于机场飞行区安全风险评价的合理性和可行性。研究弥补了既有研究未考虑风险动态突变的不足,为机场安全风险评价提供了新思路。
This paper is intended to make an effective compre- hensive mutation evaluation of the safety level of the airport flight area as well as identify the weaknesses of the system. As is well known, the airport flight serves as the main part of the airport, whose safety level is in a great position to impact the flight interactive activities. For this purpose, the given paper would like, first of all, to make a brief introduction to the underlying mechanism and calculation process of the catastrophe theory for the comprehensive evaluation method. Secondly, it would be necessary to analyze the risk-involving factors that may account for the safety of the said flight area. To come to meet the said need, we would like to build up the index safety system, including the following 4 levels, that is, the human preparation, the equipment and machinery configuration, the surrounding environment control, and the flight management according to the SHEL model and the Fishbone Diagram based on the characteristic features of the airport flight area. Thirdly, a mutation evaluation model has been built up by applying the dimensionless method to the original data of the underlying indicators, resulting in the mutation membership value of the safety risk in the said area to determine its safety risk levels by applying the catastrophe theory and fuzzy throry to the assessment of the safety risk degrees of the airport flight environment. And, what is more, the safety level of T airport can be re- garded as a case study sample to be analyzed and judged according to the mutational value. The results show that the safety risk level of T airport flight area is 0. 924, which is in the ＂safety＂ sphere within the range of [ 0. 8, 1 ）. Thus, the result proves to be consistent with the actual situation in verifying the rationality and feasibility of the catastrophe theory for the above mentioned range of the airfield safety risk, which can make up for the shortage of the currently existing research capability while ignoring the
作者
肖琴
罗帆
XIAO Qin;LUO Fan(School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期1730-1736,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71271163)
关键词
安全管理工程
突变理论
机场飞行区
风险评价
模糊集
safety control
catastrophe theory
airport flight are-a
risk assessment
fuzzy set
