摘要
当前中小机场运行安全受多种因素影响。为保证中小机场运行安全,从"人-机-环-管"4个方面进行分析,通过建立三级评价指标,依据模糊物元模型实现了风险因素定性与定量的转变。结合突变理论,解决了风险因素的突变情况。结合以上两种方法,对中小机场安全风险做出评估,判断其安全等级。方法计算简单,在考虑风险的动态突变情况的同时减少了常见综合评价中存在的主观性问题,使评价更趋于实际,能够提高评价结果的可信度。以7个机场为研究对象,采用上述模型进行安全风险等级计算,实验结果验证了模型优越性。
There are many factors that influence the safety of small and medium airports.To ensure the safety of small and medium airports,this paper first focuses on four key components:software,hardware,environment,and liveware(SHEL),and establishes a three level evaluation index based on the fuzzy matte element model,to realize the qualitative and quantitative transformation of risk factors.Then we solve the problem of risk factor mutation by combing catastrophe theory.Based on the above two methods,we assess the safety risks of small and medium airports and their safety levels.The proposed simple method can reduce the subjective problems in common comprehensive evaluations by taking account of the dynamic mutation of risks,which makes the evaluation more realistic and improves the credibility of the evaluation results.We evaluate the proposed model based on seven airports,experiment results demonstrate that our model can yield better results.
作者
杨昌其
王馨悦
张晓磊
YANG Chang-qi;WANG Xin-yue;ZHANG Xiao-lei(Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618000,China)
出处
《航空计算技术》
2021年第3期37-40,共4页
Aeronautical Computing Technique
基金
中国民用航空局安全能力建设资金项目资助(TM-2018-18-1/3)。
关键词
中小机场
安全风险评估
M-SHEL模型
突变理论
模糊物元模型
small and medium airports
safety risk assessment
M-SHEL model
catastrophe theory
fuzzy matter element model
