摘要
当前,国际油价正处于新世纪以来第3轮涨跌周期的上升阶段。上半年,在供应趋紧、需求较快增长的背景下,油价呈现震荡走高态势。然而,随着全球贸易摩擦加剧导致世界经济下行风险加大、"维也纳联盟"逐步退出减产协议、美元指数预期走强等因素影响,将对油价产生较大的下行压力。同时,地缘局势影响原油生产等因素将对油价构成一定支撑,预计未来油价将出现小幅震荡回落走势。建议能源企业抢抓时机加大勘探开发力度,优化海外资产配置,加强油价风险管理,并运用好原油期货等金融工具。
At present, the international oil price is in the rising stage of the third cycle of rise and fall, since the beginning of the new century. In the first half of the year, under the background of tight supply and rapid demand growth, oil prices showed a trend of high volatility. However, with the intensification of global trade frictions leading to increased downside risks in the world economy, the gradual withdrawal of the “Vienna Union” production reduction agreement, the expected strengthening of the dollar index and other factors will have a greater downward pressure on oil prices. At the same time, geopolitics affect crude oil production and other factors will form a certain support for oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will show a slight fiuctuation in the future. It is suggested that energy enterprises seize the opportunity to increase exploration and development efforts, optimize overseas asset allocation, strengthen oil price risk management, and make good use of financial instruments such as crude oil futures.
出处
《中国能源》
2018年第9期4-7,共4页
Energy of China
关键词
国际油价
趋势预测
能源企业
应对措施
International Oil Price
Trend Prediction
Energy Enterprises
Countermeasures
