摘要
2018年上半年,全球经济复苏导致石油需求增长强劲、OPEC与非OPEC产油国的减产协议超额落实,国际石油市场再平衡基本完成,推动油价重心不断上移。在国际政治经济局势风云变幻的大环境下,以5月为分水岭,石油市场的主导力量从供需基本面切换为地缘政治,油价在投机资金的炒作行为中持续获得风险溢价,总体呈现高位震荡态势。在基本面保持供需紧平衡、美元指数趋于强势、中美贸易冲突尚未妥善解决、美国对伊制裁即将分阶段生效的情况下,预计2018年下半年国际油价以高位震荡走势为主,均价处于70~80美元/桶,各季度均价略有回落。
In the first half of 2018,strong oil demand growth resulting from global economic recovery,OPEC and non-OPEC's higher compliance with oil output cuts,and the fundamentally-rebalanced oil market drove up oil prices higher.With the ever-changing international political and economic situation,from May as a watershed,supplydemand fundamentals have given way to the geopolitics as a dominant market force,leading to risk speculation premium and price volatility at high level.Under the situation of tight supply-demand fundamentals,stronger US dollar index,the ongoing Sino-US trade conflict,and the looming US sanctions on Iran,it is expected that international oil prices in the second half of 2018 will remain dominated by high and wide volatility,averaging$70~80 per barrel,with ease back in quarterly prices.
作者
李展
侯晖
Li Zhan;Hou Hui(Sinopec Group Economics&Development Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《当代石油石化》
CAS
2018年第8期17-23,共7页
Petroleum & Petrochemical Today
关键词
国际油价
分析预测
供需形势
宏观经济
地缘政治
international oil price
analysis and prediction
supply-demand situation
macro-economy
geopolitics
