摘要
本文以产品空间理论为基础,构建了国家层面产品密度、模仿同构与产业升级的理论模型。基于115个国家(地区)跨度54年的商品贸易数据,运用OLS和系统GMM分析,研究结果表明:总体上,产品密度与产业升级正向线性相关,具体形态上呈现出先升后降的倒U型关系,说明一般情况下,遵循比较优势是产业升级的最佳选择,但是当产品密度持续提升到高水平,遵循比较优势程度与产业升级负相关;对先进经济体的模仿同构在产品密度与产业升级关系中具有正向调节作用,对第一梯度先进国家的模仿效果优于第二梯度先进国家,这意味着盯准最富强国家进行产业结构设计是应对产业升级不确定性的改善机制,从而回答了产业升级过程中"向谁模仿"的问题。
This article focuses on the two major controversies in the path of industrial upgrading, conforming or deviating comparative advantage and following the developed countries or not. The article constructs a theoretical framework of product density, mimetic isomorphism and industrial upgrading at national level from product space view. Based on the commodity trade data of 115 countries spanning 54 years, this paper uses OLS and systematic GMM analysis and the results indicate as follows： In general, the product density is positively related to the industrial upgrading, while on the specific form, product density and industrial upgrading appears to be U-shape relationship. This shows that following the comparative advantage is the best choice for industrial upgrading in general, but when the product density continues to rise to a high level, following the degree of comparative advantage is negatively related to industrial upgrading; The imitation isomorphism effect of advanced countries in the first gradient is more obvious than that of the second-gradient advanced countries. This means that targeting the most prosperous countries to design industrial structure is an improvement mechanism to deal with the uncertainty of industrial upgrading, so as to answer the question of who to imitate in the process of industrial upgrading.
作者
马海燕
刘林青
MA Haiyan;LIU Linqing
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第8期24-37,共14页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产网络、知识产权保护与中国外贸竞争力提升研究”(15ZDB155)
教育部人文社会科学规划项目“代工企业和国际客户治理模式演化机制”(15YJA630045)
关键词
产业升级
产品密度
模仿同构
比较优势
产品空间
Industrial Upgrading
Product Density
Mimetic Isomorphism
Comparative Advantage
Product Space
