摘要
文章基于1992~2017年联合国商品贸易数据库(UN Comtrade)的产品贸易面板数据,采用显示性相对贸易比较优势指数测度中国林产品比较优势,在分析中国林产品比较优势时序演变的基础上,运用核密度估计方法和马尔可夫链模型,从时间分布特性演变与状态流动趋势视角,创新性地分析中国林产品比较优势的动态演变特征。研究发现:(1)中国林产品比较优势总体水平不高,但呈现波动上升态势,林产品比较优势的提升是一个循序渐进的过程,存在一定的"马太效应";(2)人造板、木制品和木家具等劳动密集型林产品呈现比较优势收敛趋势,而资源和资本技术密集型林产品的比较优势则分别呈现恶化和增强趋势;(3)加入WTO与经济危机对中国林产品比较优势分别产生正向和负向的影响。因此,提出4点政策启示:(1)密切关注国际贸易环境,防范化解林产品贸易风险;(2)重视原材料供给保障,改善资源密集型林产品比较劣势;(3)继续保持已有比较优势,缓解劳动密集型林产品比较优势下降趋势;(4)进一步优化林业产业结构,提升资本技术密集型林产品比较优势。该研究以期为中国企业参与林产品国际贸易竞争提供参考,为中国政府制定林业产业发展政策与林产品贸易政策提供决策依据,对于提高中国林产品国际竞争力、促进林产品贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。
Based on the product trade panel data of UN COMTRADE from 1992 to 2017, this paper uses the indicator of comparative advantage to measure the comparative advantage of China’s forest products. using kernel density estimation method and Markov chain model, this paper innovatively analyzes the dynamics of comparative advantage of Chinese forest products from the perspective of time distribution characteristics evolution and state flow trend characteristics of evolution. The results show that:(1)the overall level of comparative advantage of China’s forest products is not high, but it is fluctuating and rising. The improvement of comparative advantage of forest products is a gradual process, with certain "Matthew effect".(2)the labor-intensive forest products such as wood-based panel, wood products and wood furniture show the trend of convergence of comparative advantages, while the comparative advantages of resource and capital technology intensive forest products show the trend of deterioration and enhancement respectively.(3)China’s entry into WTO and economic crisis have positive and negative effects on the comparative advantage of China’s forest products. Therefore, four policy implications are put forward:(1)pay attention to the international trade environment, prevent and resolve the trade risks of forest products;(2)attach importance to the supply of raw materials, improve the comparative disadvantages of resource intensive forest products;(3)maintain the existing comparative advantages, alleviate the downward trend of the comparative advantages of labor-intensive forest products;(4)optimize the industrial structure of forestry, and improve the comparative advantages of capital technology intensive forest products. The research of this paper can not only provide reference for Chinese enterprises to participate in the international competition of forest products trade, but also provide decision-making basis for Chinese government to make policies of forest industry development and forest products trade,
作者
陈俊峰
戴永务
林伟明
郑义
Chen Junfeng;Dai Yongwu;Lin Weiming;Zheng Yi(School of Management,Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002;Research Center for Collective Forestry Reform and Development of New Think Tanks with University Characteristics in Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350002;Jinshan College,Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002)
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2020年第2期59-68,共10页
Forestry Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“制度质量对木材加工企业国际竞争力的影响研究”(编号:71973027)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“节能配额政策影响企业出口行为的机制与效应研究:基于造纸业的微观数据”(编号:71703024)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“互联网信息级联效应下木质林产品厂商的质量行为研究”(编号:71803025)。
关键词
林产品
比较优势
动态演变
核密度估计
马尔可夫链
forest products
comparative advantage
dynamic evolution
kernel density estimation
Markov Chain
