摘要
将地区差异化划分的思想融入到配网规划之中,充分考虑负荷预测误差的不确定性分布,提出了一种针对低负荷密度地区配电网中压线路选型的差异化不确定性规划方法。在负荷预测误差概率特性模型的基础上,构建基于机会约束理论的中压线路规划数学模型。针对模型中的置信水平取值问题,先通过基于层次分析法和离差最大化方法的综合赋权法,对待规划地区配电网的抗风险能力进行差异化划分和评估,然后据此对不同地区选取相应的置信水平。相比于传统规划方法,所提出的规划方法不仅可以实现风险和成本的统筹协调,还充分考虑了低负荷密度区域不同村镇配电网的抗风险能力的差异化特征,从而有效提升配电网规划的精细化水平。
Integrating the thought of regional differentiated division into distribution network planning, and taking full consideration of load forecasting error uncertainty, this paper proposes a differentiated uncertainty planning method for MV line selection of distribution network in low density load area. Based on load forecasting error probability characteristics model, a mathematic model using chance-constrained programming theory is built to solve the problem of confidence level values. Firstly, anti-risk ability of regional distribution network is divided and evaluated with comprehensive weighting method based on analytic hierarchy process and deviation maximization method. Then, corresponding confidence level is selected for different regions. Compared to traditional planning method, the planning method proposed in this paper can coordinate risk and cost, and give full consideration of differentiation characteristics of regional development, thus effectively raising refinement level in distribution network planning.
作者
杨楠
黎索亚
李宏圣
袁景颜
鄢晶
王璇
叶迪
YAN Nan;LI Suoya;LI Hongsheng;YUAN Jingyan;YAN Jing;WANG Xuan;YE Di(New Energy Micro-Grid Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province （China Three Gorges University） Yichang 443002, Hubei Province, China;Tianjin Tianda Qiushi New Electric Power Technology Co., Ltd., Binhai New District, Tianjin 300384, China;State Grid Hubei Power Economic Research Institute, Wuhan 430000, Hubei Province, China)
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期1907-1916,共10页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51607104)~~
关键词
配电网中压线路
负荷预测误差不确定性
机会约束规划
层次分析法
离差最大化方法
综合赋权
MV lines of distribution network
load forecasting error uncertainty
chance-constrained programming
analytic hierarchy process
deviation maximizing method
comprehensive assigning method
