摘要
针对农网改造工程普遍未考虑乡镇区域配电网之间的差异和乡镇区域负荷波动大的问题,引入机会约束规划理论,提出了一种计及负荷不确定性的考虑区域配电网风险承受能力差异的网架规划方法。首先,采用非参数核密度估计方法建立负荷的不确定性模型;然后,考虑到各乡镇区域配电网的风险承受能力差异,结合乡镇区域配电网的特点建立风险承受能力评价指标体系,并采用组合赋权法进行评估;最后,建立线路升级选型的机会约束规划模型,基于得到的评估结果差异化选取模型的置信水平,以确定线路升级的型号。实例分析表明,所提方法能够提升规划工作的精细化水平,在一定程度上实现区域配电网的风险承受能力和投资成本的相互协调,从而增强网架规划方案的适应性。
Aiming at the problems that the difference among township regional distribution networks and the large fluctuation of township area load are generally not considered in distribution network transformation projects,the chance constrained programming theory is introduced,and a grid planning method that takes the load uncertainty and the difference in risk bearing capacity among regional distribution networks into account is presented. Firstly,the load uncertainty model is established by the nonparametric kernel density estimation method. Secondly,considering the difference in risk bearing capacity among different township regional distribution networks,the risk bearing capacity evaluation index system is established according to the characteristics of township regional distribution network,then the risk bearing capacity is evaluated by the combined weight method. Finally,the chance constrained programming model of line upgrading is established,and confidence level of the model is selected based on the previous assessment results,to determine the type of upgraded lines. Example analysis shows that the proposed method can improve the refinement level of planning,and harmonize the risk bearing capacity with investment cost to some extent,so that enhancing the adaptability of grid planning scheme.
作者
肖白
郭蓓
季帅
施永刚
焦明曦
王徭
孙德强
XIAO Bai;GUO Bei;JI Shuai;SHI Yonggang;JIAO Mingxi;WANG Yao;SUN Deqiang(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China;Changchun Power Supply Company,State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130021,China;Siping Power Supply Company,State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Siping 136000,China;Tonghua Power Supply Company,State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Tonghua 134001,China)
出处
《电力自动化设备》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期68-75,共8页
Electric Power Automation Equipment
基金
吉林省产业创新专项基金资助项目(2019C058-7)
吉林省自然科学基金资助项目(20170101120JC)
吉林省教育厅科技项目(JJKH20180442KJ)。
关键词
配电网
网架规划
组合赋权法
风险评估
机会约束规划
distribution network
grid planning
combined weight method
risk assessment
chance constrained programming
