摘要
考察了价格贸易条件对亚洲7国经济增长和物价水平的影响。研究结果表明:中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、巴基斯坦和菲律宾价格贸易条件的恶化都促进了本国的经济增长。而价格贸易条件对价格水平的影响却呈现出差异性,随着价格贸易条件的改善,菲律宾和土耳其(1)的价格水平呈现出下降趋势;中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和巴基斯坦的国内物价水平反而会上升。VEC模型的分析结果显示:当受到价格贸易条件变动冲击时,中国、印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦和菲律宾的经济虽然会一时偏离长期均衡状态,但通过误差修正过程影响人均实际GDP,其经济仍将恢复均衡。而印度和马来西亚变量间长期均衡关系对人均实际GDP的影响并不显著。针对居民消费价格指数的分析,当价格贸易条件变动造成经济不均衡时,通过误差修正过程调整物价,印度和巴基斯坦的经济会重新恢复均衡状态,但变量间长期均衡关系并不能对中国、菲律宾和土耳其的居民消费价格指数产生显著影响。
This paper estimates the impact of terms of trade（TOT） on economic growth and inflation for seven Asian countries. We find that for China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,the deterioration of TOT can promote economic growth. In the case of the improvement of TOT,the domestic price tends to decrease in Philippines and Turkey. In contrast,CPI in countries such as China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia and Pakistan rises because of the improvement of TOT. According to the results which are based on the VEC model,we can conclude when the TOT of China,Indonesia,Pakistan and Philippines is not so appropriate from the long-run equilibrium,the economy can also turn back to the equilibrium by error correction process. And there are statistically nonsignificant trends toward the influence of long-terms economic balance to real GDP per capita of India and Malaysia. As for the situation of CPI in India and Pakistan,when TOT is impacted,the economy can still turn back to the equilibrium by error correction process. But the adjustment coefficient of China,Philippines and Turkey is not so significant in statistics.
作者
张建刚
魏蔚
ZHANG Jian - gang1 , WEI Wei2(1. Institute of the Marxism, China Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China; 2. School of Economics, Tianjin University of Commerce ,Tianjin 300134, Chin)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第5期1-7,共7页
On Economic Problems
