摘要
相比于里根政府时期,特朗普政府本轮税改所面临的债务上限和经济下行空间都十分有限。作为美国最大债权国和主要贸易逆差来源国,短期内,中国面临资本外流和资产价格的下行压力;长期内,中国将面临人民币汇率调整、资产价格上涨和贸易结构调整的压力。为此,中国应着力营造良好的国内营商环境,加快构建金融体系与实体经济的良性循环机制,确保人民币兑美元汇率在合理区间内上下波动,适度转换美元债权的持有形式,建立开放合作新格局,提高对服务贸易的重视程度,以自身的经济增长潜能、稳定高效的金融体系和持久强劲的内需吸引资本流入。
Compared to the Reagan's period,the debt ceiling and economic downside are both limited which are faced by the Trump administration before and after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act being subscribed.As the largest creditor of the United States and a major source of trade deficits,China will face the risk of capital outflows and downward asset prices in the short term.In the long term,China would have to bear the pressures from RMB exchange rate adjustments,rising asset prices and trade structure adjustments.Thus,China should focus on increasing service trade,constructing a good domestic business environment,accelerating the establishment of a virtuous circle mechanism between the financial system and the real economy,ensuring the fluctuates of RMB exchange rate within a reasonable range,moderately converting the holding form of U.S.dollar claims,and establishing an open cooperation net.Then,China would attract capital inflows with a stable and highly efficient financial system,lasting strong domestic demand and economic growth.
出处
《东北亚论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期110-126,128,共17页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
辽宁省教育厅2017年高等学校基本科研青年项目(WQN201721)
关键词
里根税改
特朗普税改
资本流动
资产价格
人民币汇率
Reagan's Tax Reform
Trump's Tax Reform
Capital Flows
Asset Prices
RMB Exchange Rate
