摘要
中美两国作为世界最大的发展中国家和发达国家,相互间的经济联系对世界经济的发展具有重大影响。文章从经济周期同步性、贸易密度和金融联系等多个角度,构建了度量中美经济"脱钩"程度的指标体系,并利用因子分析法对中美经济"脱钩"进行具体验证。研究结果显示,样本期间内中美两国经济联系不断增强,两国GDP增长率的反向变化并不意味着相互间经济的全面"脱钩";但在全球金融危机后,中美两国经济联系呈现出平缓降低的新趋势,这将对中美经济关系以及中国在东亚区域生产网络中的地位产生深远影响。
The relationship between China and the United States is decisive for the development of world economy,as they play as the world's largest developing and developed country respectively. This paper builds an indicating system for Sino-U. S. economic decoupling by using business cycle synchronization,bilateral trade intensity and financial linkage. Using factor analysis,it examined the Sino-U. S. economic decoupling. The results show that there is an increasing tendency in the economic relationship during the sample period. And the reverse change on China and U. S. GDP growth rates does not mean a decoupling in Sino-U. S. economy. However,the two country's relationship is improving slowly after the financial crisis,which will have a profound impact on Sino-U. S. economic relationships and China's status in the East Asia regional production networks.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第11期3-11,39,共10页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘一带一路’战略实施中推进人民币国际化问题研究"的资助
