摘要
美国是世界第一大经济体也是中国的第一大贸易国,其国内的经济波动对中国经济的发展有着重要的影响。通过HP滤波法并使用1978—2009年度数据以及2008—2010年季度数据对中美两国经济周期波动的协动性研究后发现,中美经济周期协动程度随周期变动且呈现出明显的增强趋势,中国经济增长潜力高于美国且经济波动幅度逐渐减小。为此,应加强对美国经济周期波动的预测与中国货币政策制定、施行时机的把握,从而做到提前反周期操作。
The United States is the world＇s largest economy and China＇s largest trading nation;its domestic economic fluctuations have an impressive impact on China＇s economic development.By using the HP filter method to research the business cycle synchronization of China and the U.S.A with the 1978-2009 annual data and 2008-2010 seasonal data,we find that the economic cycle association between USA and China moves with the period and presents obvious increase trend,China＇s economic growth potential is higher than the Americans and our economic fluctuations decrease gradually.Therefore,we should strengthen forecasting the economic cycle fluctuations of the USA and grasping the volatility of the prediction and China＇s currency policy,and do the counter-cyclical operation ahead of time.
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2011年第12期9-15,共7页
Economy and Management
基金
2010年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(10YJC790133)
首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新资助项目(CUEB2010190)
关键词
经济周期
协动性
HP滤波
business cycle
synchronization
HP filter
