摘要
In this paper we used the Plucking model to test the asymmetric patterns in China’s business cycle. We find the evidences that there is a significant plucking effect in output growth. The negative shock to output is not able to influence the growth trend in long run. The growth could return to its trend more quickly after the economy recoveries from the contracting phase in business cycle. These empirical findings suggest that the macroeconomic control has play the roles of stabilizing economy, and the abilities of keeping rapid and stable growth have been enforced.
In this paper we used the Plucking model to test the asymmetric patterns in China＇s business cycle.We find the evidences that there is a significant plucking effect in output growth. The negative shock tooutput is not able to influence the growth trend in long run. The growth could return to its trend morequickly after the economy recoveries from the contracting phase in business cycle. These empiricalfindings suggest that the macroeconomic control has play the roles of stabilizing economy, and the abilitiesof keeping rapid and stable growth have been enforced.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第8期38-43,共6页
Statistical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70471016)
教育部重大项目(02JAZJD790007)
吉林大学人文社会科学精品项目(2003JP005)资助。
