摘要
随着水电资源的不断开发,科学、准确地对电站周围的边坡变形监测和预测显得尤为重要。该文选择云南某已建水电站边坡作为研究对象,将边坡作为灰色系统,利用GM(1,1)模型作为预测模型,对前期监测数据序列,求得灰参数后,建立预测模型,得到预测结果。对比预测结果与实测结果,评价预测精度,并对变形发展趋势进行评估,得出结论:GM(1,1)预测模型能够满足边坡变形监测的要求,具有较好的预测精度,可以在边坡变形监测工程中广泛应用。
With the development of hydropower resources,how to scientifically and accurately monitoring and predicting the slope deformation around the power station is particularly important. In this paper,taking the slope of a built hydropower station in Yunnan as the research object,the slope as the grey system,the GM (1,1) model as the prediction model,the preliminary monitoring data is sequenced. After obtaining the grey parameter,the prediction model is built,and the prediction results are obtained. Comparing the predicted results and measured results,the predicted accuracy is evaluated. The development trend of deformation is assessed. The conclusion shows: GM (1,1) prediction model can satisfy the requirements of slope deformation monitoring,and it has good prediction accuracy. It can be widely used in slope deformation monitoring engineering.
作者
欧阳经富
谢新宇
李江浪
Ouyang Jingfu Xie Xinyu Li Jianglang(Zhongnan Engineering Corporation Limite)
出处
《勘察科学技术》
2018年第1期50-53,共4页
Site Investigation Science and Technology