摘要
采用政策法规名义测度法和经济指标事实测度法来衡量资本账户开放程度,并利用基于FGLS估计的面板固定效应模型对G20国家资本账户开放程度的影响因素进行了实证分析,在此基础上,得到国际经验规律下中国资本账户开放程度应达到的的理论水平,并将其与实际值进行对比分析。结果表明,发达国家与发展中国家资本账户开放度的影响因素存在共性,同时也有一些差异。其中一国的经济发展水平、GDP的波动、金融市场发展水平、通货膨胀率、外汇储备水平以及经济冲击是共同影响因素,而贸易开放度、汇率制度弹性、政治环境等因子的作用存在着差异。不同测度法下资本账户开放程度的显著影响因素有所不同,二者反映了一国资本项目流动与管制不同层面的信息。根据国际经验规律,当前我国进一步推动资本账户全面开放的时机尚未成熟。
We analyze the factors affecting capital account liberalization in G20 countries through panel fixed effect model based on the feasible generalized least square estimation,using both the de jure indicator and de facto indicator to measure capital account openness. Then we compare the openness level of capital account implied by the international empirical rules with the actual level in China.The results show that the factors influencing the openness of capital account in developed countries and developing countries are roughly the same,but there are also some difference. The significant influencing factors vary under different measurement methods,which reflect different kinds of information relating to capital flows and controls in a country.In addition,according to the international experience,the conditions for China to further promote the full liberalization of capital account are not yet ripe.
出处
《武汉大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期119-129,共11页
Wuhan University Journal：Philosophy & Social Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA032)
"泰山学者"工程专项经费项目
关键词
资本账户开放度
宏观经济因素
政治环境因素
capital account liberalization
influencing factors
international experience
