摘要
关于加速推进我国资本账户开放的条件是否基本成熟,目前仍有争论。本文区分资本流出和资本流入项目,厘清决定开放的经济动因因素和制度因素,运用有序probit模型分析全球88个国家和地区资本账户开放的一般经验,再利用国际经验规律评价中国情况。我们发现,无论是资本流出项目还是资本流入项目,我国资本账户的实际开放程度远落后于国际经验规律下所应达到的水平。这也意味着,按照国际规律,当前我国资本账户进一步适度开放的条件已经成熟,最后简要讨论了我国资本账户子项目适度开放的具体建议。
It is still in hot debate for whether the conditions of accelerating China＇s capital account liberalization are basically ripe at present. Based on introducing the economic motivations as well as political factors that determines the openness of the capital account, this paper divides the capital account into capital outflows and inflows items and then adopts the ordered probit model to analyze the general empirical rules of their liberalization across 88 countries （areas） in the world. Then it applied the international empirical rule to China and the results conclude that the actual openness of the capital account in China is far behind the level implied by the international empirical rules for both capital outflows and inflows items. Meanwhile, it also suggests that China is now ready for a moderately higher openness of capital account according to the internal experiences. Finally, we briefly discuss the proposals for capital sub-account liberalization in China.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期70-82,共13页
Studies of International Finance
基金
广东省高校高层次人才项目(珠江学者1414003)
教育部重大课题攻关项目(11JZD022)
中央学校基本科研经费重大课题培育项目
博士研究生学术新人奖(10000-3191041)资助
关键词
资本账户开放
条件
成熟
Capital Account Liberalization
Conditions
Ripe
