摘要
本文试图运用定性的基于法规的研究方法及定量的基于统计数据的研究方法,揭示中国1994年以来资本管制强度的变化,得出的重要结论是:(1)1994年以来,中国对资本项目的管制经历了放松(1996)、收紧(1997-1998)、再放松(1999-2003)的过程,最终的结果是比1994年有了较大幅度的放松;(2)在国际收支统计资本与金融项目的三大类别,即直接投资、证券投资和其它投资(主要包括贸易信贷和外债)中,其它投资方面的管制政策变化最多、最频繁;而直接投资,特别是对外投资方面放松管制的幅度最大;(3)基于法规衡量中国资本管制强度的指标与反映资本流动实际行为的指标之间的确存在相关性;(4)与已有基于法规的衡量方法相比,笔者根据中国资本项目管理特点设计的方法更能客观地反映中国资本管制强度的变化。
The paper aims to measure the intensity of capital controls in China since 1994 using both rule - based methods and data - based methods. The main conclusions are: i. Since 1994, capital controls in China have been relaxed (1996), tightened( 1997 - 1998) and relaxed again (1999 - 2003). Consequently, the intensity of capital controls in 2003 is much less than that of 1994. ii. Among the three components of capital and financial account of BOP statistics, namely, direct investment, portfolio investment and other investment (including trade credits and external debt), changes in policies and regulations on other investment ranked No. 1 in terms of both quantity and frequency. However, the intensity of controls on direct investment, especially oversea investment has declined significantly, iii. There is correlation between rule - based indicators and data - based indicators when measuring the intensity of capital controls in China. iv. Compared with other rule- based methods used in literature, the one based on characteristics of capital controls in China has proved better in terms of reflecting the actual change of the intensity.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第12期9-23,共15页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
资本项目
资本管制
强度
capital account, capital control, intensity
