摘要
现金流和成长机会作为影响企业长期投资决策的两大核心要素,已是不争的事实。然而,当我们进一步思考,二者之中,谁是主导企业投资的关键要素?学界尚缺乏讨论。进而,鉴于无形资产与有形资产对企业经营发展意义的差异性,本文将区别研究两种投资的主要驱动因素,是现金流?还是成长机会?同时,企业的生存与发展与其外部环境紧密相连,我们还将探讨宏观经济状况及市场投资者情绪对两类投资对其主要驱动要素敏感程度的影响。为使研究结果更为准确且有意义,我们以科技部官方网站公布的国家级创新型企业为对象,将其中的上市公司作为研究样本,借鉴McL ean&Zhao(2014)的投资决定模型进行研究。Ii,t/Ai,t-1=αi+αt+β1qi,t-1+ β2CFi,t/Ai,t-1+β3qi,t-1×Et+β4CFi,t/Ai,t-1×Et+β5qi,t-1×St+β6CFi,t6/Ai,t-1×St+εi,t本文将资产投资率I/A区分无形资产投资率与有形资产投资率分别研究,将成长机会q与内部现金率CF/A作为主要解释变量,且体现宏观经济状况E与投资者情绪S对两种驱动要素与投资间关系的调节作用。结合我国金融市场实际,本文参照Baker&Wurgler(2006)投资者情绪指数的构建方法,以封闭式基金折价率、消费者信心指数、A股新增开户数、交易量、IPO数量及首日收益率六个指标为基础,并与工业生产增加值、工业品出厂价格指数、宏观经济景气指数及居民消费价格指数四个宏观经济状况的代理变量正交化,以此消除宏观经济状况的影响,利用主成分分析方法审慎地构建了适合中国现实背景的投资者情绪指数。同时,为了更真实地反映企业无形资产的投资实际,本文将其界定为"无形资产投资"、"开发支出"资产账户的本期增量与费用化的本期研发支出的总和。运用多元回归方法,实证检验了无形资产投资的主导要素与有形资产投资的主导要素,是现金流?还是成长机会?研究表明:�
Cash flow and growth opportunities have been widely considered as two core elements in investment decision. However,when we think further,among the two,which is the most important driving force in investment？ The question has drawn little attention. Furthermore,in view of different effects on enterprise development derived separately from intangible assets and tangible assets,this paper explores the primary driving force behind the two kinds of investments respectively. Meanwhile,since the external environment is vital in decision-making,this research further studies the effect of macroeconomic condition and investor sentiment on the investment sensitivity to cash flow and growth opportunities. In order to obtain more accurate and more significant results,we selected public companies from National Innovative Enterprises,which are listed on the website of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People＇s Republic of China from 2006 to 2013 as samples. We refer to the investment-decision model from Mc Lean and Zhao（ 2014）.Ii,tAi,t-1= αi＋ αt＋ β1 qi,t-1＋ β2 CFi,t/Ai,t-1＋ β3 qi,t-1× Et＋ β4 CFi,t/Ai,t-1× Et＋ β5 qi,t-1× St＋β6 CFi,t/Ai,t-1× St＋ εi,tHere,I/A is defined as the investment rate of intangible asset and the investment rate of tangible asset separately,and the growth opportunity q and the cash flow CF/A are the main explanatory variables. The macroeconomic condition E and the investor sentiment S are taken into account as well. Referring to Baker and Wurgler（ 2006）,and considering the reality of China＇s financial market,we constructed an investor sentiment index with six variables： the closed-end fund discount,the trading volume,the number of IPOs,the average first day＇s return of IPOs,the new investor accounts and consumer confidence index.Macroeconomic conditions are likely to affect investor sentiment,so all the sentiment variables are regressed on four macroeconomic variables and the residuals from these regressions are used as the investor sentiment proxi
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第2期125-134,共10页
Science Research Management
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71371113)
教育部人文社科研究项目(14YJA790034)
关键词
企业创新
研发活动
无形资产投资
有形资产投资
成长机会
现金流
enterprises ＇ innovation
R＆D activities
intangible assets investment
tangible assets investment
growth opportuni-ties
cash flow
