摘要
蓄积于社会经济系统中的钢是社会物质财富的重要组成部分,充分利用蓄积于社会经济系统中的钢能够有效解决一系列资源与环境问题。基于钢的社会流动和蓄积过程,构建钢社会蓄积动态物质流分析模型,考察中国、美国和日本工业化进程中的钢社会蓄积水平及其演变趋势,结果表明中、美、日三国具有相似的钢社会蓄积历程:在完成工业化以前,钢社会蓄积呈现出从缓慢增长到快速增长再到迅速增长的阶段性特征;美、日进入后工业化阶段后,人均钢存量先后达到11t/人左右的饱和水平,经济增长与钢消费趋于解耦。钢的社会蓄积与工业化进程有着内在的联系,不同的工业化程度对应不同的钢社会蓄积水平。根据美、日经验,中国人均钢存量仍会进一步增长,并于后工业化阶段达到饱和。然而,由于中国人口数量大,达到与美、日相当的人均钢存量还需要消耗大量的资源,并会带来环境污染问题。因此,在新时代中国特色社会主义建设中,中国应走新型工业化道路,通过技术创新、供给侧结构性改革以及生活方式转变,努力降低人均钢存量的饱和水平。
Steel social stock is an important part of social material wealth,fully use of steel social stock which accumulates in the social and economic system can effectively solve a series of resources and environment problems,patterns analysis of steel social stock during the process of industrialization can provide the basis of resource strategy,energy strategy and environmental policy.Based on the basis of full understanding and effective tracking of the steel social flow and stock,this paper constructed a model of dynamic material flow analysis of steel social stock to analyze steel social stock level and its evolution trend in China,USA and Japan.Results show that there is similar stock process with significant characteristics presenting a trend of slow growth-quick growth-rapid growth in China,USA and Japan before industrialization,that per capita stock of steel in USA and Japan reached 11 t/cap during the stage of post-industrialization,as a result,their economic growth is coupled with steel consumption trend.Steel social stock has intrinsic connection with industrialization process,and different industrialization processes are corresponding to different steel social stock levels.According to the experience of USA and Japan,we can predict that Chinese per capita stock of steel will increase and reach saturation eventually during the stage of later industrialization and post-industrialization,however,China has big population,a lot of resources will be consumed in reaching per capita steel stock of USA and Japan and environmental pollution will be brought in accordingly,thus,in the process of the construction of socialism with Chinese characteristics at new era,China should move forward through new-style industrialization and work hard to lower the per capita steel stock saturation level by technical innovation and structural reform at supply side as well as life style change.
出处
《西部论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期7-17,共11页
West Forum
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132017037)
辽宁省社科规划基金资助项目(L17CGL011
L17CGL015)
辽宁省教育科学"十三五"规划立项课题(JG17DB060)
辽宁省博士科研启动基金资助项目(20170520205)
大连大学博士启动专项基金资助项目(2017QL014)
关键词
钢社会蓄积
钢社会流动
工业化进程
工业化阶段
人均钢存量
饱和水平
钢消费
新型工业化
steel social stock
steel social flow
industrialization process
industrialization stage
per capita steel stock
saturation level
steel consumption
new-style industrialization
