摘要
2007年次贷危机之后,存量流量一致模型在预测危机方面的成功使其重回宏观经济分析的主流。本文阐述了存量流量一致模型的基本原理,运用模型的资产负债表矩阵和交易流量矩阵详细分析了其会计一致性的原理;然后进一步探讨了存量流量一致模型的闭合、行为设定以及均衡求解方法;最后从模型构建的基本思路、行为设定以及均衡求解技术方面比较分析了存量流量一致模型与动态随机一般均衡模型。本文认为后凯恩斯的存量流量一致模型在货币、信贷、财富、生产和分配方面提供了一体化的处理方法,此模型能够将实体经济和货币、金融市场有机衔接,从而能够更好地分析现实经济体系中的货币政策、金融化、杠杆和收入分配等现实问题。未来存量流量一致模型的研究需要借鉴马克思关于资本配置、总劳动配置以及社会再生产正常进行的理论分析,挖掘存量流量一致模型背后的深层次根基以更好地刻画现代宏观经济的运行。
After the 2007 subprime crisis, the success of the stock-flow consistent （SFC） modeling approach in predicting the crisis made it return to the mainstream of macroeconomic analysis. This paper expounds the development history of the post- Keynesian SFC model, and then analyzes the basic principle of the SFC model in detail, and thoroughly analyzes the principle of accounting consistency with the model＇s balance sheet matrix and transaction flow matrix. The paper further analyzes the closure of SFC model, behavior setting and equilibrium solution method. Finally, the dissertation com- pares the post chastic general Keynesian SFC model and the neoclassical macroeconomics dynamic sto- equilibrium model from the basic idea of model building, behavior set- ting and equilibrium solution. The paper argues that the post-Keynesian SFC model pro vides a comprehensive and integrated approach to deal with money, credit, wealth, pro duction and distribution. This model can build connections between the real economy and finance, and solve the problem that there is no money and finance in the neoclassical macroeconomic model. So the SFC model provides a better analysis of real problems in the real economy system, such as monetary policy, financialization, leverage and in- come distribution. The future research about SFC should use the Marx＇s theory of cap ital allocation, aggregate labor allocation and the normal condition for social reproduc tion for reference, by which SFC model analyzes the deep route of the economic system and the SFC will characterize the economy＇s reality better.
出处
《政治经济学评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期154-179,共26页
China Review of Political Economy
关键词
后凯恩斯理论
存量流量一致模型
动态随机一般均衡模型
post-Keynesian theory, stock-flow consistent model, dynamic stochasticgeneral equilibrium model
