摘要
运用状态空间法构建综合承载力模型,利用主成分分析法求取权重,对吉林省2005-2014年综合承载力进行了测算,结果显示:1)吉林省综合承载力虽然呈"波动式"上升,但始终处于超载状态,说明吉林省经济处于一种不可持续状态;2)自然资源承载力>经济承载力>生态承载力,自然资源承载力是富余的,经济承载力基本处于均衡状态,而生态资源承载力却明显不足,处于赤字状态,说明生态环境将限制吉林省经济发展;3)土地资源承载力>水资源承载力>能源承载力,土地资源承载力是富余的,但水资源和能源承载力却不足,处于赤字状态,说明水资源与能源是制约吉林省经济发展限制性因素;最后从发展循环经济,优化产业结构,提高科学技术,改变人们生产和生活方式等来提高吉林省综合承载力,旨为吉林省经济持续发展提供了技术支撑.
This article manages to employ state-space-method to construct comprehen- sive carrying capacity model, and uses main factors to obtain weights of relevant factors, to calculate the comprehensive carrying capacity of Jilin Province, the results show： 1）The comprehensive carrying capacity of Jilin Province has been increasing with fluctuations, but it has been long time in a state of overloading, which implies the insustainability of the eco- nomic growth of Jilin Province. 2）In Jinlin Province, resources carrying capacity〉 economic carrying capacity 〉 ecological carrying capacity. The nature ressources is in surplus, while the economic carrying capacity is in equilibrium and ecological carrying capacity in deficit. Ecological problems will be an obstacle that slows down economic growth. 3）Land source carrying capacity 〉 water resource carrying capacity 〉 energy resources carrying capac- ity. The land ressources is in surplus, while water resource and energy resources in deficit. water resource and energy resources will be the main reasons that slow down economic growth.According to the above results, efforts can be made in developing cyclic econony, optimizing institutional structures, advancing scientific technology, etc. to improve the com- prehensive carrying capacity of Jilin Province.
作者
孟玫
李秀霞
MENG Mei;LI Xiu-xia(School of Tourism and Geography Science of Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2017年第21期304-313,共10页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
吉林省社会科学基金项目"吉林省新型城镇化与新农村建设耦合发展研究"(2017B53)
关键词
状态空间法
综合承载力
生态足迹
主成分分析
state-space method
comprehensive carrying capacity
ecological footprint
prin-cipal component analysis
