摘要
【目的】探明合肥市水土资源承载力监测预警评价体系,为当地制定水土利用政策提供参考依据。【方法】采用多因素综合评价法、熵权法与层次分析法、ARCGIS可视化功能并结合EVIEWS向量自回归模型(VAR),从水资源承载力、土地资源承载力和环境资源承载力3个维度构建由16个指标组成的水土资源承载力监测预警评价指标体系,研究合肥市及其辖区2009-2018年水土资源的承载力。【结果】合肥市水土资源承载力警情状况逐年缓解,由2009年的0.379警报状态下调至2018年的0.600临界预警状态;合肥市所辖行政区划的水土资源承载力警情逐年下调;通过EVIEWS构建VAR模型得到的3个子系统间呈现冲击的动态关系,在此基础上提出控制人口增长,重视生态环境保护,着重提高水资源承载力水平等合肥市未来水土资源规划的建议。【结论】该监测预警评价体系可为当地及类似地区制定水土利用政策提供参考。
【Objective】The evaluation system for monitoring and early warning of water and soil resource carrying capacity in Hefei City is discussed,which provide a reference for formulating water and soil utilization policies in local area.【Method】The monitoring and early warning evaluation index system of water and soil resource carrying capacity consisted of 16 indexes is established from three dimensions of water resource carrying capacity,land resource carrying capacity and environment resource carrying capacity by using multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method,entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process,ARCGIS visualization function combined with EVIEWS vector auto-regression model(VAR),and then the water and soil resource carrying capacity in Hefei City and its administrative divisions during 2009-2018 is studied.【Result】The alert state of water and soil resource carrying capacity in Hefei City has been alleviated year by year,which reduces from 0.379 of alert state in 2009 to 0.600 of critical warning state in 2018.The alert state of water and soil resource carrying capacity has been lowered year by year in administrative divisions of Hefei City.The suggestions of water and soil resource plan in Hefei City in the future are proposed including controlling population growth,paying attention to eco-environment protection and focusing on improvement of water resource carrying capacity based on the impact dynamic relationship among three sub-systems obtained by establishing VAR model through EVIEWS.【Conclusion】The established monitoring and early warning evaluation system can provide a reference for formulating water and land utilization policies in local and similar areas.
作者
李琛
LI Chen(College of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211100,China)
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
2021年第1期128-135,共8页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“移民工程的跨学科研究”(13&ZD172)。
关键词
水土资源承载力
多因素综合评价法
ARCGIS
监测预警
water and soil resources carrying capacity
multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method
ARCGIS
monitoring and early warning
