摘要
通过对延迟退休政策下经济增长与失业率的量化模型分析,发现在延迟退休政策实施后,存在一个不仅能够提高人力资本利用率,而且还可以降低失业率的经济增长与失业率的一个均衡解。并且在此基础上,引入适龄劳动人口、老年人抚养比、工资水平和消费者物价指数等影响失业的控制变量构建实证模型,并利用2006-2015年的全国数据进行实证分析。最后,假设中国采取渐进式延迟退休政策情况下,利用实证分析结果测算延迟退休政策在不同时点实施时的失业率。结果表明,延迟退休政策在短期内不会对就业产生负面影响,相反会在一定程度上降低失业率水平。
This paper analyzes the quantitative model of economic growth and unemployment under delayed retirement policy,and found that the implementation of delayed retirement policy not only can improve human capital utilization,but also can reduce the unemployment rate of economic growth and unemployment rate. On the basis of it,introducing control variables affecting unemployment constructing empirical model such as the working age population,the elderly dependency ratio,the wage level and the consumer price index. And then using the national data from 2006 to 2015 for empirical analysis. Finally,use the empirical analysis to measure the unemployment rate at the time of implementation of the delayed retirement policy at different times in assuming that China adopts a progressive delay in retirement policy. Finally concluded,delayed retirement policies will not have a negative impact on employment in the short term,on the contrary,will reduce the unemployment rate to a certain extent.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期86-91,123,共7页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71263053
71663055)
云南省哲学社会科学研究基地课题"云南省贫困地区精准扶贫政策的反馈机制研究"(JD2017YB17)
关键词
延迟退休
失业率
经济增长
老年人口抚养比
delayed retirement
the unemployment rate
economic growth
older population ratio
