摘要
以坚持江苏沿海地区为江苏主要粮仓地位不动摇,保障江苏省粮食安全为前提,在耕地—粮食—人口复合系统下,以耕地压力指数模型为基础,倒推人口承载力估算模型,评价江苏沿海地区的现实人口承载状况。同时,对江苏沿海3市2025年人口承载力进行测算,在二胎政策全面放开的现实情况下,规划江苏沿海地区未来发展的合理城市人口规模。结果表明:1)1998—2014年江苏沿海耕地面积波动减少,人口持续增长,人均耕地面积大幅走低,粮食总产量波折小幅增长;2)江苏沿海地区整体人口承载压力较小,从各地级市看,人口承载压力呈现南通>连云港>盐城的特点;3)预测2025年南通、连云港、盐城3市最适人口规模分别为640万、978万、1 756万,最大人口规模分别为800万、1 223万、2 195万。
The coastal area in Jiangsu province is the major crop producer, where ensure the guarantee of Jiangsu＇s crop supply. This paper, based on farmland-crop-population compound system, uses farmland pressure index model to estimate the population carrying capacity model, and to evaluate the actual population carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity in three coastal cities in Jiangsu in 2025 is predicted under the condition that the 2nd Child policy is open to all, which is used to plan a rational urban population size. During 1998--2014, farmland decreased in area, but population rose continuously, leading a largely falling in farmland area per capita; however, the total crop production was a little rising. The overall population carrying capacity pressure is small in Jiangsu＇s coastal area, Nantong sits on top, followed by Lianyungang and then by Yancheng. It is predicted that in 2025 the appropriate population is 6.4 million in Nantong, 9.78 million in Lianyungang and 17.56 million in Yancheng, maximum up to 8.00 million, 12. 23 million and 21.95 million, respectively.
出处
《资源与产业》
2017年第5期78-85,共8页
Resources & Industries
关键词
耕地—粮食—人口复合系统
耕地压力
人口承载力
南通
连云港
盐城
farmland-crop-population compound system
farmland pressure
population carrying capacity
Nantong
Lianyungang
Yancheng
