摘要
通过计算湖北省目前以及近年的耕地压力指数,结合各市、州的粮食自给率来说明湖北省的粮食安全状况,并且寻找出影响湖北省耕地压力指数的主要因素,阐明湖北省在保障粮食安全的过程中所存在的问题,这对降低湖北省耕地压力指数、保障粮食安全和提高农业综合生产力等方面具有实际的可操作性。从动态角度,将湖北省与耕地压力指数相关的面板数据做纵向动态分析,观察各项数据的发展趋势。并且选用灰色系统模型和各种回归模型对2020、2025年的湖北省耕地面积、人口等与耕地压力指数相关的要素进行预测,从而预测出湖北省未来的耕地压力指数,然后充分结合湖北省的实际情况对湖北省未来的粮食安全状况进行分析和预测。假设未来不同的粮食需求情况下,预测湖北省的耕地压力指数大小和粮食安全状况。
By calculating current cultivated land pressure index in Hubei and in recent years, and combining grain self-suffi- ciency rate of each city and state, situation of grain security in Hubei province was illustrated. Main factors affecting pressure in- dex of cultivated land in Hubei province were found out, and problems existing in the process of ensuring food security in Hubei province were clarified. It was practical to reduce pressure index of cultivated land in Hubei, to ensure food security and to im- prove comprehensive productivity of agriculture. From dynamic point of view, panel data related to cultivated land pressure in- dex in Hubei province were analyzed longitudinally, and development trend of the data was observed. And grey system model and various regression models were used to predict factors in 2020 and 2025 in Hubei, which related to cultivated land pressure, such as cultivated land area, population and so on. Then, combining actual situation of Hubei province, future grain security situation in Hubei province was analyzed and predicted. Assuming future of different food demand, prediction of Hubei＇s culti- vated land pressure index size and food security situation was made.
出处
《农业工程》
2017年第5期98-101,共4页
AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
关键词
耕地压力
粮食安全
灰色模型
耕地保护
湖北省
Cultivated land pressure, Food security, Grey model, Cultivated land protection, Hubei province
