摘要
将系统动力学与双要素(水资源量和水环境质量)模型相结合建立城市水资源人口承载力模型,以长春市为例,模拟了2014—2030年长春市水资源人口承载力在不同方案下的动态变化趋势.结果表明:水资源量是决定长春市水资源人口承载力的关键要素,在常规模式下长春市水资源人口承载力未来始终呈超载状态,且逐年加重;将开源与节流方案相结合的综合方案能弥补二者单独实施所存在的弊端,在短期内可有效提高长春市水资源人口承载力,同时使未来水资源人口承载状态持续稳定,满足该地区可持续发展要求.
The model of population carrying capacity of urban water resources was established based on system dynamics and two dimension （the quantity of water resources and quality of water environment） model. Changchun City was selected as an example. The dynamic trend of population carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City was simulated with conditions of different schemes from 2014 to 2030. The results showed that： the quantity of water resources was the key factor to determine the population carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City. In the normal development scheme, the popula-tion carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City would be overloaded in the future and there would be an increasing tendency of overload. Only by combination of searching for new and saving pres-ent water resources, the disadvantages of the two separated schemes were remedied. The population carry-ing capacity of water resources in Changchun City could be effectively improved. In the short term by the comprehensive scheme. Moreover,the population carrying state of water resources would be steady in the future,which could meet the requirements of sustainable development in the region.
作者
吴卫宾
韩锦辉
杨天通
王斯勃
周杨
赵文晋
WU Weibin;HAN Jinhui;YANG Tiantong;WANG Sibo;ZHOU Yang;ZHAO Wenjin(School of Environment and Resources, Jilin University,Changchun 13QQ12,China)
出处
《郑州大学学报（理学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第4期126-131,共6页
Journal of Zhengzhou University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家科技重大专项(2012ZX07202-009)
关键词
水资源
人口承载力
系统动力学
water resource
population carrying capacity
system dynamics
