摘要
随着城市旅游业在优化就业结构、改善基础设施建设、拓宽就业渠道等方面发挥出重要的作用,政府开始高度重视旅游效率的提高。本文基于Bootstrap-DEA纠偏模型,对2001-2014年广东省21个地级市的城市旅游效率进行测算,采用Moran's I系数和Geary'C比率进行空间自相关检验,并利用考虑空间异质性的地理加权回归(GWR)模型,对广东的城市旅游效率进行实证研究。研究结果表明:(1)从纠偏效率的数值特征看,广东省各个城市间旅游效率水平差异明显,大多城市总技术效率较高,但为DEA无效的城市数量在增多;(2)从空间全局视角看,广东省城市旅游效率的空间自相关检验出现由负效应转变为显著的正效应的趋势,在局部视角下具有明显的局域集群趋势;(3)相比全局线性回归(OLS)模型,bi-square权函数下的局部空间回归(GWR)模型拟合优度最高,解释能力和精度也更强;(4)GWR模型能有效识别城市旅游效率增长机制的空间非平稳性,本文基于不同区域驱动因素作用的异质性,提出"广东五大旅游板块"空间格局的差异化发展策略来探讨城市旅游效率的驱动因素和作用机理。
Urban tourism plays an important role in optimizing the structure of employment, improving infrastructure construction and broadening employment channels. With rapid tourism development in our country, the government attaches great importance to improving tourism efficiency. We employed a Bootstrap-DEA model to analyze tourism development efficiency and changes in total factor productivity in 21 cities Guangdong, China during 2001-2014. We analyzed spatial-temporal characteristics of urban tourism efficiency through spatial statistical analysis using Moran＇s Index and Geary＇ s Ratio, and using a geographically weighted regression model including spatial heterogeneity. The results show that it is necessary to solve the problem using Bootstrap- DEA. From the point view of the mathematical features of efficiency, urban tourism efficiency levels were different in Guangdong： the province as a whole has relatively high urban tourism efficiency, but the efficiency is becoming inefficient. The spatial-temporal characteristics of urban tourism efficiency of Guangdong have evolved from irrelevant to relevant from 2001 to 2014. A key finding was that there is an obvious local clustering trend for urban tourism efficiency. The GWR model based on a bi-square weighted function exhibited better explaining ability. The Moran scatter plots of urban tourism efficiency were used as a reference. Compared with the traditional ordinary least square model based on ＇stationary hypothesis embedding＇ , the geographical weighted regression model based on ＇non-stationary＇ revealed profound spatial differentiation factors. The GWR model based on bi-square weighted function exhibited better model goodness and explaining ability. The scheme of spatial strategic pattern optimization of urban tourism, namely, ＇five sections of tourism in Guangdong＇ is discussed and a differentiation development strategy constructed. These findings reveal that geographical weighted regression can reconstruct the spatial-temporal nonstationary gr
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第8期1545-1559,共15页
Resources Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(15ATJ001)
广东省旅游局科研合作项目(GZSW16120FG3173)
中国劳动保障科学研究院科研合作项目(LKY-2016jx-14)
关键词
空间计量
城市旅游效率
时空特征
增长机制
广东省
spatial statistics
urban tourism efficiency
spatial- temporal characteristics
growth mechanism
Guangdong Province
