摘要
基于DPSIR理论构建湿地公园旅游环境承载力系统动力学模型,并运用Vensim软件对未来不同发展情景模式下闽江河口国家湿地公园旅游环境承载力进行仿真试验,得出如下结论:第一,在现状延续型、旅游发展型和保护开发并重型情景下,游客数量增长不受限制最终都会导致游客满意度下降;第二,游客数量增长会对水体承载力和固体垃圾承载力带来压力,游客心理承载力和湿地面积承载力还会陷入"两难"境地;第三,除保护开发并重型情景,现状延续型和旅游发展型情景下水体承载力和固定垃圾承载力都会超载。据此,提出严格观测并控制游客数量、加强湿地旅游环境污染处理力度、增强公众保护湿地的意识等政策建议。
Based on the Driving-Forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response（DPSIR）theory,the paper established the system dynamics（SD） model for wetland park eco-tourism environmental capacity,then applied Vensim software to simulate andforecastthe tourism environment capacity of Minjiang Estuary National Wetland Park in different development scenarios.The conclusion as follows：First,the unrestricted number of visitors will eventually lead to tourists satisfactiondrop in Continuationscenario,Tourism scenario and harmoniousscenario.Second,the increasing visitors will put pressure on water carrying capacity and solid waste carrying capacity,at the same time the carrying capacity of tourist psychology and wetland areawill fall into the ＂dilemma＂ situation.Third,water carrying capacity andsolid waste carrying capacitywill be overloaded in both Continuationscenarioand Tourism scenario but not in harmoniousscenario.According to the conclusion,the paper suggested that the relevant departments must strictly observe and control the number of visitors,intensify efforts on pollution treatment,and enhance public awareness of wetlands protect.
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2017年第6期32-37,共6页
Forestry Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金"森林旅游景区环境承载力预警机制研究"(编号:15JBY129)
