摘要
2016年全球石油市场供需再平衡稳步推进,货币政策维持宽松取向,支撑国际油价探底回升后震荡上行。本文沿基本面和资金面两大逻辑主线,从供需平衡、美元走势、地缘政治和宏观经济等多个角度回顾了全年油价走势,对2017年的国际油价变化趋势进行了展望。预计国际油价将于2017年前期震荡上行、后期遇阻回落,布伦特原油均价为52~58美元/桶,布伦特–WTI年均价差为2美元/桶左右。
In 2016, global petroleum market supply-demand rebalance was steadily promoted, and currency policy kept loose orientation, supporting international oi price to ascend in fluctuation after bottom bound. Along the two main logic lines of fundamentals and funds, the article reviews the development trends of international oil price for the whole year of 2016, and forecasts the development trends of international oil price in 2017, from multiple angles such as supply-demand balance, U.S. dollar trend, geopolitics and macro-economy. It is expected that international oil price will ascend in fluctuation in the earlier stage of 2017 and drop when meeting resistance in the later stage, the average price of Brent crude will be $ 52 - 58 per barrel, and Brent-WTl annual average price gap is about $ 2 per barrel.
出处
《当代石油石化》
CAS
2017年第1期7-12,19,共7页
Petroleum & Petrochemical Today
关键词
国际油价
分析预测
供需形势
宏观经济
地缘政治
international oil price, analysis and prediction, supply-demand situation, macro-economy, geopolitics
